Calgary Flames, Progression and Predictions for 2014-15
Oct 6, 2013; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Is Calgary Flames head coach Bob Hartley coaching a team that will climb or fall down the NHL standings this season? Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
The Calgary Flames finished 2013-14 in 13th place in the Western Conference. The only Western team they finished ahead was our Alberta rival, Edmonton Oilers. Looking at the NHL as a whole, the only other teams the Calgary Flames finished better than last season were the Florida Panthers and Buffalo Sabres.
What lays ahead in 2014-15 for Calgary Flames? Are the Calgary Flames a team that will shock many folks and make the playoffs? Is a modest improvement over last season a fair assessment? Or are the Calgary Flames simply fodder for the Connor McDavid/Jack Eichel sweepstakes? Let’s investigate!
Jun 27, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; A general view of the complete draft board after the completion of the first round of the 2014 NHL Draft at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Finishing 28th overall last season, the Edmonton Oilers will enter the 2014-15 season with the same head coach (Dallas Eakins). That’s only the 2nd time since 2008 the Oilers have returned the same coach to the bench. The Oilers brought in new assistant coaches in Craig Ramsay (who in a new twist is NOT a former Oiler player) and Rocky Thompson. For all the offense the Edmonton Oilers have drafted through their “re-building years”, the likes of Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov still could not guide the Oilers as a team to score more goals than our Calgary Flames during the 2013-14 season. The bigger issue in Edmonton is keeping the puck out of their own net, with 270 goals against, the Oilers led the league in goals against. A trio of new defensemen, Nikita Nikitin, Keith Aulie and Mark Fayne, should help.
Finishing 29th overall last season, the Florida Panthers will enter the 2014-15 with Roberto Luongo as their starter. As long as both Aleksander Barkov and Nick Bjugstad (last season’s leading scorer) both don’t suffer through sophomore slumps like Jonathan Huberdeau, the anemic offense should show progression. Progression is inevitable on the defensive end of the ice IF the 1st overall draft pick of the 2014 draft, Aaron Ekblad steps in and plays to the level scouts believe he can play at.
Finishing 30th overall last season, the Buffalo Sabres added veterans Brian Gionta and Andrej Meszaros . Great additions for a team on the cusp of making the playoffs…but the Sabres are not on the cusp of making the playoffs anytime soon. A hodge-podge collection of forwards and defenseman all aiming for better results in the first full season playing in front of a Sabres goalie not named Ryan Miller. By no means am I a Ryan Miller advocate but for the improvements the Sabres will show on offense and defense, the goaltending situation will keep them down.
I believe the Calgary Flames can stay ahead of the Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers and Buffalo Sabres in the standings.
Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
My reason for optimism begins with Calgary’s improved goaltending situation.
The free agent signing of Jonas Hiller, in combination with the fact that incumbent Karri Ramo does not have to shake off four years of NHL rust (remember Ramo spent 4 years in the KHL before signing with our Flames) already should make Calgary Flames fans smile.
As previously mentioned in the Jonas Hiller re-introduction article, Jonas Hiller’s career numbers are very similar to the last goaltending superstar the Calgary Flames had in Miikka Kiprusoff:
From the 2003-04 season through the 2012-13 season, Calgary Flames fans were treated to the goaltending services of Miikka Kiprusoff. Kipper finished his 12 year career with a 2.49 goals against average and a .912 save percentage. Through 7 years in the NHL, Jonas Hiller has posted a career 2.51 goals against average and a .916 save percentage.
Simply playing to his career stat line, Jonas Hiller would finish top 10 in goals against average for goalies playing 40+ games.
If a goaltender (or any player for that matter) tends to play above his stat line, it’s usually during their “contract year”. Go get’em Mr. Ramo!
Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
The Calgary Flames defence boasts a top line pairing worthy of any team in the NHL. Mark Giordano and TJ Brodie form a defensive pairing that contains both good puck sense and good puck skills.
Fears of Giordano falling off after a Norris Trophy type season last year should be shelved with the hopes the Captain of the Calgary Flames is able to play a full slate of games in the upcoming season. Giordano missed 18 games last season due to a broken ankle. Even if Giordano regresses slightly from an All Star worthy 2013-14, an extra 18 games of an “ordinary” Giordano is still a positive for our Calgary Flames.
Remember those magic words that seem to make a good player seem to play better, “contract year”. Enter Thomas James Brodie!
Dennis Wideman may no longer be the offensive juggernaut he use to be before he joined our Calgary Flames the summer of 2012 but if he can play a full season is still fully capable of scoring 10 goals.
Things get a little sketchy after those three with Kris Russell, Laddy Smid and Deryk Engelland currently pencilled into starting spots. By sketchy, I mean how long can 5’10” Kris Russell continue to take NHL beatings? Laddy Smid is the unsexy stay at home defenseman and Deryk Engelland is a free agent signing I need to see in an expanded role before I lay judgement.
With training camp invites and signings being pre-dominantly defenseman in Rafael Diaz, Sheldon Brookbank, Corey Potter and most recently Nolan Yonkman you can tell the Flames organization are trying to make sure they ice the best team possible. Moreso, the Flames organization also seem to be trying to make sure not to rush Tyler Wotherspoon, Patrick Sieloff or Mark Cundari into the NHL.
Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Offensively the talk has been about the loss of Mike Cammalleri to the New Jersey Devils. In theory, that’s 26 goals that the Calgary Flames have to account for, right? Let me play into the doom and gloom so many people want to project about our Calgary Flames offense and suggest that Sean Monahan goes through the same sophomore slump that Jarome Iginla suffered through back in 1997-98. Let’s suggest Monahan goes from 22 goals to 13 goals. That puts our “in the offensive hole” total at 35 goals.
The Calgary Flames did sign free agent Mason Raymond who’s career average is 14 goals per season. So now we are down to 21 goals.
The Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets swapped free agents in Devin Setoguchi and T.J. Gallardi. Setoguchi averages 10 more goals per season than Gallardi. Down to 11 goals.
Curtis Glencross has averaged 17.5 goals per season with the Calgary Flames. The last two seasons have been shortened by lockout and by injury. The two years leading into the lockout, Glencross scored 24 and 26 respectively. With this season being (here are those magic words again) Glencross’ “contract year”, a return to 20 goals is almost expected. Down to 3 goals.
Those last 3 goals will likely be accounted for by our defensive core but the problem is the Calgary Flames need more offensive output than last year, not just the same amount.
Enter Johnny Gaudreau. I am firmly in the camp that believes “Johnny Hockey” will play 70+ games for our Calgary Flames and notch 20 goals.
Speaking of camps, I am also firmly in the camp that Sam Bennett will be returned to the Juniors after his 9 game audition with our Flames but not before notching a couple goals. Be a shame to send him away without any souvenirs!
Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
My official predictions for the upcoming 2014-15 season are as follows:
- The Calgary Flames will finish Top 20 in team goals against average (the Flames finished 24th in the NHL last season).
- Our Calgary Flames will finish better than last year’s 27th overall and will stay ahead of the provincial rival Edmonton Oilers.
- The Calgary Flames will have three(3) twenty goal scorers this season – – Mikael Backlund, Curtis Glencross and Johnny Gaudreau.
- Johnny Gaudreau will 2014-15 for the Calgary Flames; 1st round draft pick Sam Bennett will not.
- Tyler Wotherspoon will start the 2014-15 season with the Adirondack Flames. He will be the first defenseman called up by Calgary.
- Michael Ferland will start the 2014-15 season with the Adirondack Flames. He will be the first forward called up by Calgary.