Calgary Flames Roster: What Is Lance Bouma Worth?

Lance Bouma and the Calgary Flames are set to go to an arbitration hearing on July 22nd. The 25 year old RFA made $775 000 last season on the last year of his ELC. The numbers that both sides want were made public earlier today on twitter by Tim Wharnsby on Twitter. The team offered $1.5M while Lance wants $2.5M.

But what is he really worth? Looking just at his points you could compare him to Carl Hagelin of the Anaheim Ducks. Hagelin was 25 for the 2013-2014 season and he scored 33 points. Bouma was 25 for the 2014-2015 season and scored 34 points. During that season Carl Hagelin was making $2.1M. So it could be argued that the Flames should agree to Bouma’s contract demands.

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However there is one key difference between the two. Carl Hagelin had an 11.8 shooting percentage, which isn’t a spot on Lance Bouma’s ridiculous 15.4 shooting percentage. Prior to this year his career high was 6.1 last season. If he had that had shooting percentage with the number of shots he generated this season his goals would shrink down to 6 and his points would only be at 24. Even if he shoots at his new career average 10% he would have only scored 10 goals reducing his point totals to 28.

Lance Bouma played top 6 minutes last season and benefited greatly with a ridiculous shooting percentage to show for it. All through out his career he has been a fourth line grinder and he is statistically set to return to that position next year as it is improbable that he repeats his point totals and shooting percentage.

Instead of a contract like Carl Hagelin the Flames should look no further than Joe Colborne for an example of what Lance Bouma should be making. Last year Flames management showed that they believe a grinding “heart and soul” type player with lots of grit, in his mid twenties, and after scoring around 30 points, and with a career high shooting percentage no less, is worth a 2-year deal with a $1.275M AAV. While Colborne did score less they had the same number of assists and Colborne was generating less shots.

The Flames have set a precedent for what middle six wingers are worth and paying Lance Bouma anywhere between $1.275-2M should be considered a fair deal. This deal should be no problem for the Flames as they still have $6.27M in cap space left. With the remaining cap room the Flames can focus on re-signing Jooris and Byron who have also elected for arbitration and Micheal Ferland who has not accepted his qualifying offer.

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