Calgary Flames Roundtable: Late-season collapse
It’s time for another Calgary Flames roundtable! Let’s talk about the late-season collapse from the team *starts crying*.
Well, it’s officially over. The Calgary Flames season is done and all our suffering is over. There were some great moments and some fun times, but at the end of the day, they couldn’t pull through.
For a majority of the season, they actually had a good chance of making the playoffs. And they were projected at one of the top teams in the Pacific Division heading into the season. Stupid Vegas.
They came back from the bye-week and somewhat collapsed. Injuries plagued them. Their powerplay has been quite bad basically all season. It’s been a long season and as much as I hate to say it, but I’m somewhat glad it’s over. This team needs a reset.
I asked the other writers here at Flame for Thought about their thoughts on the Flames’ late-season collapse. So let’s have a virtual roundtable discussion about it.
*Keep in mind, these questions were asked before the season ended, so if some things have to do with the season still in progress, that’s why.
Question one: When do you think was the turning point for the Calgary Flames for them to sort of collapse and have those playoff hopes somewhat shattered?
Jonathan Boulanger
The obvious answer here is the Mike Smith injury, but I’m going to go in a different direction. The 3-1 loss at home against the lowly New York Rangers, where they had 51 shots and Brett Kulak scored the only goal. At that point, the slide had started but was very minor. They were expected to come in and easily take care of business against a rebuilding team whose management had clearly waved the white flag on the season. They egregiously outplayed the rangers and got some of the patented Calgary Flames poor goaltending to boot.
It was the ultimate deflation and spearheaded an ugly trend of not being able to put away teams and collect points that desperately needed to be collected. To me, the Flames never looked the same after that and would seemingly give up whenever they would be down in a game and wouldn’t be able to score. They would press and generate offense (without scoring) for five to ten solid minutes at a time and then the opposing team would score and the flames would throw in the towel. Always the same old story.
Ian Gustafson
The turning point was when Mike Smith went down. It seemed like the team was picking up momentum and when he went down the backups failed to pick up the slack.
Tomas Oppolzer
Mike Smith getting injured and David Rittich not being able to hold down the fort in his absence was definitely the start of the collapse. He went from one of the best back-ups in the NHL to a goalie who couldn’t stop a beach ball. Smith coming back and post horrible efforts in 4 of his first 5 games after returning definitely didn’t help either.
Related Story: Flames Daily - Mike Smith falling at the worst time
Benjamin Prokopy
The bye week. The Flames won seven consecutive games leading up to the league-mandated week off. Things were looking very good until the moment the puck dropped at their first game back on January 20th. That was the beginning of a six-loss run that included being crushed 7-4 at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
It was downhill(er) from there. Prior to the break, the team won about 55.5% of their games. Since then, it’s been a miserable 32%. Before the bye week, they converted on 18.4% of their PP attempts. After that, 12.8%. Ironically, their team possession numbers improved after the break. As did their PK%. Those were not enough to generate wins, however.
Dan Raicevich
Mike Smith’s injury. No doubt about it. The tandem of Rittich and Jon Gillies couldn’t provide that All-Star netminding that Smith was playing at. The Flames may or may not have rushed Smith back a little earlier than they should have as well, but his injury was a turning point for this season.
Ramina Shlah
I think there was a mix of all of these. Post-bye week, they just collapsed for some reason. Then Mike Smith got injured at the worst time, and while David Rittich was one of the best backups, it’s clear he’s not ready to be an NHL starter. But for me, I think the ultimate collapse was the game against the San Jose Sharks where the Flames lost 7-4.
They had split the last two games when Smith returned and he cost them the game against the New York Islanders then stole the game against the Edmonton Oilers. Then he collapsed again against the Sharks and the Calgary Flames weren’t able to recover and that started a seven-game losing streak. When they faced the Sharks, they were still in the running and had a chance of making it. But after that game, that’s when the team, especially goaltending, had the biggest collapse.
Question two: On that note, do you think there was a specific reason or just little things piling up?
Jonathan Boulanger
Definitely little things piling up, those little things being good luck for the opposing team and bad luck for the Flames. Good teams are able to brush off bad or lucky goals by the opposition and keep pushing. Not the 2017-18 Calgary Flames, at all.
Ian Gustafson
Well it was an abundance of things starting to catch up to the Flames such as injuries, and depth scoring. They were out shooting their opponents during most games but unable to put the puck in the net.
Tomas Oppolzer
Calgary Flames
The goaltending was definitely the biggest reason but there was a bunch of small things that didn’t help. The fact that the Flames powerplay never really got their act together was hard and Glen Gulutzan just couldn’t seem to get a hold on what the optimal bottom 6 forward group was. It’s difficult to win games about 25% of the time your team is going to be completely ineffectual.
Benjamin Prokopy
Neither. There is no single reason for the collapse. Nor was it a situation where little things piled up. There were broad systemic issues with this team that overshadowed any day-to-day operational problems.
The Calgary Flames were offensively ineffective this season. Over the course of the year, the team averaged only 2.6 goals per game this season. They are 5th worse in the NHL in that category. This despite the fact that they generated 33.7 shots/game, which was 6th highest in the league. Whether it was a question of inadequate scoring chances or shots from bad spots is up for debate. Either way, the systems put in place to generate offence were woeful.
As I’ve already mentioned, the power play was equally lame. The team sits 4th worst in the NHL, scoring on only 16% of their opportunities with the man advantage. And it isn’t as though they lacked opportunities. So far, they’ve drawn 262 penalties this year, 6th most in the league.
The lack of success on the power play is due to some baffling decisions by the coaching staff. The biggest head scratcher was to consistently place Troy Brouwer on the top PP line in favour of more offensive players such as Dougie Hamilton.
You can‘t win games in the NHL if you don’t score. And you cannot score if the offensive systems in place are ineffectual.
Dan Raicevich
This team was starting to become fragile in a way. They were blowing leads after 40 minutes, especially the collapse in their first meeting with Vegas at home. Not to mention, this team cannot win on Saddledome ice to save their life. If they won 5-7 more home games, we would be looking forward to a first round matchup with a team and not dusting off the golf clubs.
Ramina Shlah
Yeah it was basically a mix of things all season long. The injuries, especially when Mike Smith got injured. The fact that it took the coaching staff 51 games to realize that Dougie Hamilton is their best offensive defenceman and to use him on the powerplay. Blowing leads, like Dan said. It was just a weird season and there was a lot of little reasons that the Calgary Flames’ season was a disappointing one.
Question three: With all the injuries, do you think it’s somewhat of a blessing in disguise for the Calgary Flames to not make the playoffs this year?
Jonathan Boulanger
I suppose. If it permits management to realize they need to put guys like Spencer Foo, Oliver Kylington, Rasmus Andersson in a position to succeed over guys like Troy Brouwer, Tanner Glass and Michael Stone – Then it is a blessing. the root of the aforementioned scoring trouble that flushed the season is due to guys like Brouwer who has 6 goals and was getting significant powerplay time, during the playoff race!
Ian Gustafson
It’s a blessing in a way because it is likely with a matchup with Vegas or Nashville that they wouldn’t win. It also will force management to make some changes to the team whether they’re minor of major.
Tomas Oppolzer
No. Sure, they would be hard-pressed to go far but in a season where your first pick isn’t until the 4th round, not making the playoffs is rough. Playoff hockey is also just plain fun and not getting to watch it sucks.
Related Story: Players getting chances with others injured
Benjamin Prokopy
I do not. Every team has injuries going into the post season. As a fan, I would much prefer to be in the post season than not. And, like every fan, I understand that, if my team doesn’t make it to the playoffs, I can at least look forward to the entry draft and the potential incoming talent. But, with no selections in either of the first 2 rounds this year, I can’t even look forward to that.
I’d much prefer the playoffs.
Moreover, the Flames enjoyed standout performances this year from the likes of Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton. Those efforts are wasted if the team does not have a playoff appearance to show for them. This is particularly true in the case of Giordano who, at 35 years old, has more great years behind him than ahead.
Dan Raicevich
Not at all. For a team with the expectations of making the playoffs and potentially contending for the Stanley Cup, this season is a complete and utter failure. Flat out, bar none. To think that this team, with the level of skill it possesses, fell this short is unacceptable.
Ramina Shlah
I’d obviously much prefer the playoffs. But the Calgary Flames would not be as successful in the playoffs without Kris Versteeg or Sean Monahan. And there’s also that risk of players trying to play through their injuries and worsening them, like we’ve seen with Monahan, and Matthew Tkachuk or TJ Brodie if they rushed back. While I’d prefer playoffs, they wouldn’t have been as successful.
Question four: GM Brad Treliving reportedly told the other GMs at a meeting last week that he’s planning on trading for a first round pick, do you think that’s a good idea?
Jonathan Boulanger
I want to see changes, but smart changes. Trading for a first round pick is a good idea, but in today’s day and age it will cost you an arm and a leg so Treliving needs to be very careful with what he gives up in an effort to acquire one. His eyes were clearly bigger than his stomach when he traded for Travis Hamonic last summer, which is why the team is without a first rounder this year in the first place. Moves like that are what create perennial NHL basement dwellers. Be careful, Brad.
Ian Gustafson
I think there are positives and negatives to it. Getting a first rounder could provide more depth to the team but at the same time the Flames already have so many great prospects in Stockton and some up with the team right now. It’s a question of is it really worth it? I’d rather they try to get more depth wingers.
Tomas Oppolzer
Yes, the draft is the easiest way to build up talent and the 1st round is the best place to do that. If they can trade someone like Hamonic, Brodie, or Sam Bennett for a mid-to-late 1st rounder that would be huge.
Related Story: Flames Daily - Trading for a first round pick?
Benjamin Prokopy
Not really. The Flames have more immediate needs than can be acquired at the draft. The need for more scoring among bottom 6 forwards has been well documented, for instance. Put another way, the team needs help now. Best to use their limited trade assets for an NHL-ready player.
I do enjoy the prospect (pun intended) of drafting players such as Brady Tkachuk or Filip Zadina. Players like that, however, are projected to be drafted very early and will only be traded at an extreme premium. I’m not sure any team selecting within the top 10 of the draft is likely to part with their selection. That leaves Treliving to more realistically deal with teams selecting more towards the middle or the bottom of the draft. Obviously, the talent is thinner as the draft deepens. And this team does not need another player in Stockton right now.
There is also the notion of cost. Realistically, a first round selection will cost the Flames high end players. The obvious trade targets would be Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Dougie Hamilton and, perhaps, Matthew Tkachuk. Those players are, in my mind, simply too much to part with for a pick which may not ultimately improve the team.
Brad, if you’re reading, please leave the draft alone.
Dan Raicevich
Not really sure. Depends where in the first round you would like to make that selection or what you are targeting. But to draft in the first round for the sake of it is not a good strategy.
Treliving is going to have a good amount of work to do this summer in order to make this team better from a compete level perspective and add skill at the forward spot.
Ramina Shlah
I agree with the option for a winger over a first-round pick. The Flames right now don’t necessarily need a total rebuild, just a couple of hinges need tightening here and there. They need a consistent top-six RW and they need some help with their secondary scoring. Spencer Foo may be able to help with one of those problems, but if Treliving is going to make a big trade, I’d prefer a top-six forward.
Question five: That being said, who do you think could be traded this off-season?
Jonathan Boulanger
I definitely think either Brodie or Bennett or both could be dealt this offseason. I would be ok with Brodie being dealt because I think he could be replaced rather easily with one of the team’s stellar defense prospects whether it be Juuso Valimaki, Andersson, Kylington or Adam Fox. As for Bennett, he’s still too young for me to be on board with trading him. He’s only 21 and could become a solid player for the flames for many years if he is simply awarded some patience. He has shown flashes and is already quite valuable in my opinion.
That being said, you can’t give him all the time in the world and at some point he has to start playing like the 4th overall pick that he is. If not, it might be time for a fresh start for #93. The reluctance around trading him is rooted in the potential regret the Flames may face if he blossoms into a star somewhere else. The cautionary tales are present with guys like Tyler Seguin after he was traded from Boston, Taylor Hall after he was traded from Edmonton and even Miikka Kiprusoff after he was traded from San Jose to Calgary back in the day. Once again, be careful Brad.
Ian Gustafson
I think TJ Brodie could be on the move and possibly one of our goaltenders such as Gillies.
Tomas Oppolzer
I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw at least two of Travis Hamonic, TJ Brodie, Micheal Stone, Sam Bennett, and Micheal Ferland moved. The Flames need a top 6 winger and they also have prospects like Rasmus Andersson who are more than ready to make the jump but have players on the main roster blocking their way.
Related Story: What's going on with T.J. Brodie?
Benjamin Prokopy
I think the Flames’ most tradeable asset is TJ Brodie. With so many defense prospects in the cupboard, the team can afford to move a blueliner. And the smooth skating, offensively minded Brodie would be very attractive to teams in a trade scenario.
I’d also guess he would be the least protected defenseman. The team isn’t likely to trade their captain, Giordano. Dougie Hamilton is in a class of his own, so likely untouchable. And I don’t think the return on Travis Hamonic would be as high.
That leaves Brodie. His $4.65M cap hit is not entirely prohibitive. However his modified no-trade clause, which stipulates that he can select 8 teams to which he cannot be traded, could act as a barrier.
There are a number of prospects that could go as well. Aforementioned defensemen like Rasmus Andersson, Oilver Kylington and Adam Fox may well be included in a deal. I also think both Jon Gillies and David Rattich played well enough in Mike Smith’s absence to endear themselves to any team needing a reliable backup goaltender.
Finally, it wouldn’t surprise me if Micheal Ferland’s name was announced in a trade. He gained a great deal of exposure on the top line with Monahan and Gaudreau. He has a very attractive cap hit $1.75M, particularly for the caliber of player that he is evolving into.
Trading Ferland now solves a future problem for Treliving, as well. Ferland’s contract expires at the end of next season (2018-2019). At that time, the 20-goal scorer will likely ask for (and deserve) a raise, barring any performance issues next year. Unfortunately, Matthew Tkachuk’s entry-level contract expires at the same time as Ferland’s. Tkachuk was on pace for 30 goals before being shut down with a suspected concussion. Should that continue next year, he will be due a very big raise (somewhere close to linemate Mikael Backlund’s $5.35M, I would expect).
With Backlund’s raise taking effect next season, the Flames are running short on cap room, all things being equal. Treliving, I’m sure, knows that cap space needs to be available for a new deal for Tkachuk. As such, there may simply be no room for a Ferland deal come next season’s end. Obviously, getting value for Ferland now is the better option against letting him go in free agency.
Dan Raicevich
Anyone not named Gaudreau, Giordano, Hamilton, Monahan, Smith and Tkachuk should be available.
I would definitely try to help strengthen my depth on the scoring wings. I would also try to look and add some bottom six depth too, thats for sure. It sure looks like Rasmus Andersson is ready to play in the NHL. Could he be a chip used to bring a big scoring winger back?
That includes the coaching staff as well. That is where the change needs to be made the most. While Glen Gulutzan might be a players coach, has had some form of success as well, it just appears to me that he has no control over the locker room there. I mean one goal goes in and its like they fold a hand of Pocket Aces.
The Flames need hire a veteran coach who is demanding on the players. Im sorry to say it because Gully has the best flow of any head coach in the NHL too. But he is a little soft on the group, and they need a coach who is very hard on the players.
Ramina Shlah
I would definitely agree that TJ Brodie is most likely the one being traded. He hasn’t been that great or consistent since not being paired with Mark Giordano. And as much as we can attribute that to maybe Dennis Wideman was the anchor, it’s been made clear that he makes his own mistakes.
The only problem is that, since Brodie’s had somewhat of an off-year, I’m not sure how much trade value Treliving could get for him. That leaves another option that the others have mentioned with Micheal Ferland. I think Tre could work his negotiation magic and get some good value for him. While I really like and respect Ferland, he is somewhat inconsistent. But as the Sportsnet panel has mentioned, the Calgary Flames won’t be trading with their emotions.
Next: Takeaways from win over Vegas - That's a wrap!
Well, this was somewhat of a disappointing season, but at least they finished it on a high note. That’s all in this edition of the roundtable!