Of all the sweeping changes that the Calgary Flames made this summer, goaltending was not among them. Viewed through the past and present of Flames netminding, the future is not as bright as it should be.
The Past
Remember Brendan Peters?
Calgary Flames fans will most likely remember him as “Baby Kipper” or “Mini Miikka”. He was the kid that used to show up at the ‘Dome in full Miikka Kiprusoff gear. Painted ginger beard and all, he’d position himself behind Kipper and mimic his every move during the pre-game warm up. In his time, he was a phenomenon.
Peters (no relation to new coach, Bill) is into his early 20’s today. Nevertheless, he has left a long-lasting impression on Flames fans for a couple reasons. First, he was adorable. He was an unabashed little boy paying tribute to his hero in the most public of ways. Thus warming the coolest of hearts among the Flames faithful. More relevantly, though, he remains a symbol of the last time the Calgary Flames had consistent and reliable goaltending.
That was 5 years ago. And the latest roster thus far provides little hope that we will see netminding deserving of Brendan-Peters-style worship anytime soon.
Since Kipper’s retirement at the end of the 2012-2013 season, the Flames’ crease could only be described as a revolving door of mediocrity. Disappointments like Jonas Hiller, Karri Ramo, Joey MacDonald, Joni Ortio, Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson should not be waiting by the phone for their Hall of Fame invitations. Although to be fair, the latter two are still kicking around the league and could prove me wrong.
Calgary Flames
Fast forward to the beginning of the 2017-2018 season, when GM Brad Treliving brought in Mike Smith. I am on the record as not being tremendously supportive of this move. Not to belabour the point, but I felt he was an ageing commodity and not the best available option.
Smith did his best to prove me wrong, however. His .920 SV% going into the holiday break was among the NHL’s top 10. Add to that Treliving’s rapid disposal of the abysmal Eddie Lack in favour of David Rittich (who posted a .924 SV% in 4 starts as backup), and there were reasons to be optimistic.
Of course, that all changed on February 11th. In the dying seconds of a 3-2 Calgary Flames win over the NY Islanders, Smith fell to the ice with an obvious groin injury. It was, as fans know, the beginning of the end.
Smith’s season was essentially done (he returned to start only 8 more times, winning only twice). During the remainder of the year, Rittich just couldn’t get it together. In the 11 games he started, he was only good enough for a .885 SV%. Jon Gillies fared no better, a .903 in 10 games. Though it is fair to say that the team in front of them was not getting things done either, Gillies and Rittich were simply not good enough.
The Present
All of Smith, Rittich and Gillies are returning for the 2018-2019 season, which begs the question: what does the Calgary Flames fan base have to look forward to? To get excited about? Put another way, with the sweeping changes Brad Treliving made in the offseason, why did he not direct some attention to the team’s most important position? And what of the future?
Smith has more than proven that he can handle a starting goalie’s workload as effectively as the best in the league. That workload was significant last year given he started all but a handful of games in the first half of the year. However, at 36-years old, groin injuries like the one he sustained on February 11th are more likely to plague him, not less. Thus logic dictates a more even division of labour between Smith and whomever his backup ends up being.
However, based on last season’s performances, there is no reason to believe Gillies or Rittich will provide the team with the effort needed to accumulate the needed wins. I’m certain both will improve after a summer of training and reflection on the lessons learned from last year. But that really only buys them 8 or 10 games of my good faith.
As it sits, then, if Smith goes down for any length of time like he did last year, each will be given their opportunities, and they may surprise. But, most likely, the team is left with the same unproven commodities as they were last year when Smith was injured.
In the hypothetical (but wholly foreseeable) scenario that Smith does get injured again, and the backups fail to impress, what then? Treliving could seek out a trade. That may prove difficult given any deal arising out of these circumstances would be made from a position of desperation, forcing a less equitable transaction than would otherwise be possible. Thus the free agent market is really his only option. As of this writing, available assets would be the likes of Kari Lehtonen, Ondrej Pavelec, or Steve Mason.
None are marvellous options. On numbers alone, Lehtonen is the most desirable, having by far both the most games played and highest SV% last year of the three. But he’d also be the most expensive. This is a concern to a Calgary Flames GM who, after a summer filled with contract negotiations, only has a little over $2.5M in cap space to deal with this year. Depending on the extent of Smith’s hypothetical injury, Treliving would likely need to seek salary cap relief by placing Smith on Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR).
Long story short, the only alternatives available to Treliving in the crease this season are bad ones.
The Future?
In an article by columnist Eric Francis, Brad Treliving made his statement way back in May. Obviously buoyed by last year’s first half performances, he said, “I’m confident in the goaltenders we have…I think we have the right personnel here”. So his inaction around goalies this summer should come as no surprise.
In fact, he held to his conviction by inviting Jeff Glass to training camp on a Professional Tryout (PTO) contract. With a career of 15 games of NHL experience and an .898 SV%, the 32-year old is threatening to take exactly nobody’s job. Although, as a side note, Treliving’s track record of signing underwhelming players off their PTO contracts is nearly perfect.
The unfortunate consequence of Treliving’s inaction is that goaltending will become a focal point at the end of this season. And it may be impossible to give the crease a facelift in any meaningful way.
Both Mike Smith and David Rittich are entering the final year of their respective contracts. Jon Gillies has two to go. Successful seasons for any of these players (which is Treliving’s best case scenario) will obviously precipitate contract extensions. Perhaps raises.
The more interesting (and more likely, in my opinion) scenario is that the Calgary Flames will find it necessary to look to free agency to improve their position. And, at first glance, their options will be impressive. As of this writing, the likes of Sergei Brobovsky, Pekka Rinne and Semyon Varlamov are all looking at unrestricted free agency at the end of this season.
However, the odds of any of these players reaching actual free agency versus re-signing with either their existing teams (or teams to which they are dealt at the trade deadline) are low. Even if they are available, the dollars they are likely to command may be unmanageable. The Flames are up against the cap this year and will very likely find themselves in the same position next year. A $7M cap hit like the one Rinne or Bobrovsky will demand may be impossible to take on.
More practical options may be the likes of Robin Lehner or Michael Hutchinson (again, assuming they are not re-signed by the New York Islanders and Florida Panthers respectively). Both carry a cap hit less than $1.5M. Lehner in particular is an interesting case, having posted a .916 SV% over 133 games behind an absolutely horrible Buffalo Sabres team.
This is not to suggest that Hutchinson and Lehner are the long-term answers to the Calgary Flames historical inconsistency. Indeed, they are not. The only point here is that Brad Treliving has done little to correct an imperfect situation and, as a result that situation is likely to remain imperfect.
Perhaps the 2019 Entry Draft will offer a solution. Top prospect rankings are never perfectly clear at this point in the year. But it seems to be generally agreed upon that the draft’s top goalie prospect is Spencer Knight, most recently of the Under-17 US National Team. It would be a long road to NHL stardom for Knight if the Flames can get him. If not, fans have to rely on the development of Mason McDonald and Tyler Parsons.
In sum, we the fans of Calgary Flames want to see a goalie worthy of Brendan-Peters-style adoration. Unfortunately, there is not much reason to be optimistic that we will.
Brad, if you’re reading this (and I know you do), what’s up with the goalies, man?