Flames won the Neal/Lucic trade by knockout
When the Calgary Flames take to the ice against the St. Louis Blues on Thursday, one face will be notably absent: James Neal’s. Milan Lucic, who the Flames traded Neal to get, is ready to roll. Lucic continues to be a valuable member of the Flames while it seems Neal has faded into obscurity. So let this be the final word: the Calgary Flames won the trade, and it ain’t close.
The news dropped quietly. Amid preparations for the second game in a home-and-home versus that Calgary Flames, the St. Louis Blues announced that James Neal had been assigned to minor league affiliate Springfield Thunderbirds.
For most, news of the assignment likely means very little. But for Flames fans, it brings back memories. In July 2019, the Calgary Flames sent Neal to their provincial rivals, the Edmonton Oilers, in exchange for Milan Lucic.
Divisional rivals almost never make deals. And the Flames and Oilers are no exception. But the Neal-for-Lucic trade seemed to solve a common problem for both teams. Neal and Lucic were free agent signings that were ultimately overvalued and underperformed for their respective teams.
The Oilers thought Neal would provide goal scoring and would get a look on the team’s top line with Connor McDavid. The Flames, on the other hand, needed Lucic to play lower in the lineup. He would be looked at for strength and leadership, not goal scoring. Two bad contracts that would look a little better in a new town.
As with any trade, media and pundits alike asked the inevitable question: who won the trade?
Decision: Flames. A One-Sided Debate
In the two years after the trade, the Edmonton Oilers would pay Neal $5.75M/year plus Lucic’s retained salary of $750K/year. That’s $6.5M/year for 2 years, or $13 million.
For their $13 million, the Oilers got:
- 84 games
- 24 goals
- 41 total points
In the same 2-year period, the Calgary Flames would pay Lucic $5.25 million/year ($6 million less the $750,000 retained by the Oilers). That’s $10.5 million in 2 years.
For their, $10.5 million, The Flames got:
- 124 games
- 18 goals
- 43 total points
On offensive contribution alone, the decision goes to the Flames. Certainly Neal scored 6 more goals than Lucic in the same time frame, but it cost them $2.5 million more than the Flames paid.
For their money, the Calgary Flames also got 8 fights out of Lucic, Edmonton enjoyed only 1 fight out Neal, ironically versus former teammate Matthew Tkachuk. Sadly, decision to Neal on that one.
The 2021-2022 Season
Neal’s tenure with the OIlers ended after he was bought out at the end of the 2020-2021 season. He would sign with St. Louis in the offseason. The legacy of the trade, however, continues to be a drain on Edmonton’s resources.
Edmonton owes $750,000/year for the next 2 years, until Lucic’s contract expires. On top of that, they need to pay Neal $1,916,667/year until the end of the 2024-2025 season. That’s just about $10 million over the next three and half years for a player that just got sent to another team’s minor league affiliate.
On top of that, Edmonton ultimately had to surrender their 3rd round pick in the 2021 Entry Draft per the conditions of the trade. The Flames ended up flipping the pick for a third round and sixth round pick in the same draft. Time will tell how those work out.
Next. My thoughts and ahead of the game: Flames, Jackets, Blues. dark
There’s no reality where the Oilers won the deal here. However, in a world where the salary cap is not climbing, and the Calgary Flames aim to retain pending free agents, Lucic’s contract will become more burdensome.