Flame for Thought roundtable: trade targets and MVP candidates

Question 1:  Name the Calgary Flames MVP at the midpoint of the season.  Easy, right?   Here’s the catch: you CANNOT name anyone on the top line.  Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm are off limits.

Gary Pearson: Chris Tanev – Incredibly important to the team, particularly on the PK. Blocks shots like a boss. His ability to move the puck up ice seamlessly is underrated. He’s a gamer, a team player and puts his body on the line every game for the Calgary Flames.

Greg Admunsen:  It’s fairly obvious that Johnny Gaudreau has been the Flames best player this season and I took a look at the astronomical numbers he’s put up through the first half in a recent post.  If we look outside the top line, though, Oliver Kylington stands out as a key piece in the Flames success.  The Flames defense looked a bit rocky through the first few games this season until an injury to Noah Hanifin allowed Oliver Kylington to get an opportunity in the lineup and he hasn’t looked back.  He’s solidified the top four, which I think is one of the major factors in the Flames first half success.

Kylinton is leading the Flames defense in 5v5 G/60, 5v5 A/60 and 5v5 P/60, with all three sitting in the top quartile among NHL defensemen.  His defensive impact has been just as strong, with an on-ice xGA/60 that is second only to Chris Tanev among the Flames defensemen and sits at the 25th percentile league wide.

Matthew Wilson:  Without the top line, there’s only one clear answer to this year’s MVP and that’s Jacob Markstrom. Sporting 17 wins and a .923 save percentage (a career best), he was undeniably one of the reasons why the Flames won so many games at the beginning of the year. Let’s not forget that he currently leads the league in shutouts with 7, and is 3 up on the number 2 spot (Jack Campbell). He currently has 11.39 Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) which is insane in its own right. Although there are some concerns that he’s being overplayed, he’s put up career best numbers this year that have undoubtedly helped the Flames.

Benjamin J. Prokopy: I’m going off the board on this one.  Darryl Sutter.  That’s not to say I disagree with any of my colleagues.  Tanev, Kylington and Markstrom all deserve their place on an MVP list.  However, I don’t think any of that happens without Sutter and the system that he has them all buying into.  First, and this is a big thing with me, they’re scoring first.  They have already scored first 26 times in 42 games this season.  That is one time fewer than they did in last year’s entire (albeit shortened) 56-game season.  And with 90 shots in their 2 games before the All-Star break, they are offensively trending in the right direction.

If he’s not in the conversation to be nominated for the Jack Adams award, something is very wrong.

Question 2: You are Calgary Flames GM for a day. What (realistic) trade would you execute right now?

Gary Pearson: I would love to see the Flames get J.T. Miller from the Canucks. Not sure who we’d have to give up to get him, but his character would help massively going into the playoffs. He’ll also chip in with some secondary scoring and would complement Coleman brilliantly.

Greg Admundsen: There are a couple of areas I think the Flames should target for improvement at the trade deadline.  Their lack of secondary scoring and weaker bottom six became very apparent during their Dec/Jan dry spell. Tying into picking Kylinton as their first half MVP, I also think they are one injury in the top four away from having a difficult time with their defense corps.  There are some signs that we could see an uptick from some of the middle six, like Sean Monahan and Dillon Dube, but it would be beneficial to push one of the current fourth line wingers out of the starting lineup and add some scoring at the same time.  The Flames have just over $5M in projected deadline cap space according to CapFriendly and there aren’t any really enticing pending UFA defencemen, so I would make a middle six forward the primary target.

I did a trade proposal post on the Puck Luck Analytics blog earlier in the season that included Arturri Lehkonen heading to Calgary and I still like that idea, although I’d change up the return going to Montreal.  Lehkonen is defensively responsible and has the lowest 5v5 xGA/60 among Canadiens forwards this season.  It’s actually well below the 25th percentile league wide despite the train wreck that the Habs’ season has been so I think he’d fit in well with Sutter’s system.  He’s producing offense this season as well, with 5v5 P/60 around the 75th percentile and should provide some secondary scoring in the middle six.  He also comes at a very reasonable $2.3M cap hit, which leaves some cap space to improve depth on defense.

The Puck Luck Analytics model values Lehkonen at over $4M this season, so the return for Montreal won’t be insignificant.  Loosely following the valuation techniques I use with the Puck Luck model, we’re looking at a combination of a high draft pick and one or more prospects.  I’d start with a second round pick and a prospect like Jakob Pelletier or Rory Kerins and expect to add another prospect or pick to get it done.

Matthew Wilson: If I could make one trade right now for the betterment of the team, it would be for Jared McCann of the Seattle Kraken. He’s the embodiment of what the Flames so desperately need – a bona fide second line scorer.  And a centre at that. With Mangiapane and Coleman on his wings, McCann would center an elite play driving line that can help take some of the pressure off of line 1. Combined with his career above-average shooting percentage, McCann would be a sure hit for Brad Treliving before or on the trade deadline that would check off a box the Flames need to be a real threat come playoff time.

Benjamin J. Prokopy: It is the worst kept secret in the entire NHL that the Calgary Flames need secondary scoring.  My target addresses that need, but may be a little long on imagination and short on practicality.  Phil Kessel. Kessel is not what you’d call a prototypical Sutter player.  However, though his 5 goals this year don’t show it, he is capable of generating offence.

To be clear, this deal is a pure rental deal.  As such, Arizona would need to retain a healthy portion of Kessel’s $6.8M cap hit.  But given that he is in the last year of his contract, that should not be an issue.  I also like Kessel because I believe he’ll have a high ROI.  His production has fallen off over the last 3 years.  So I don’t believe he’d come at a great cost.  Perhaps one 2nd rounder and a 3rd down the road.  If the Coyotes ask for prospects, I do not think we’d need to part with a Pelletier.  Valimaki comes to mind.

Great thoughts from a great group fans.  Looking forward to the back half, boys.