The Calgary Flames made the first splash ahead of the 2022 trade deadline, acquiring Tyler Toffoli from the Montreal Canadiens.
The Flames get a legitimate scoring threat to add to their middle six. Let’s take a closer look at the newbie’s numbers.
While the Flames top line continues to dominate, secondary scoring was clearly an issue for the Flames through the first half of the season. There are signs that some improvement might come from current players, like Sean Monahan and Blake Coleman. Yet there was also clearly room to improve the roster, as players like Brett Ritchie and Tyler Pitlick rode shotgun on the third line for the first half of the season and adding Toffoli addresses that need.
In Toffoli, the Flames get a capable goal scorer who will slot into their middle six with four 20+ goal seasons in the NHL on his resume. Let’s take a look at some numbers from Natural Stat Trick and compare to model projections from Puck Luck Analytics to see what the Flames are getting.
Even Strength Offence
Toffoli has just 2 goals at 5v5 in 37 games with the Canadiens this season, which could be reason for concern. However, if we dig a bit deeper, there are signs that his low production will be temporary. Toffoli’s 5v5 SH% is a measly 3.23 this season. Typically, Toffoli’s shooting has been much closer to league average around 7-8% and he’s been over 12% through a full season three times in his career. He has just one season below 7% if we exclude the 10 games he played as a rookie in 12/13.
His low shooting percentage has led to a low 5v5 G/60 of 0.26. The Puck Luck model projected a 5v5 goal rate just below 1 and it’s easy to see that Toffoli could perform at that level going forward if his shooting percentage returns closer to historical numbers.
Similar to his individual shooting, Toffoli’s 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage is due for an upward surge. At 5.91%, it’s the lowest of his career is more an indicator of the Canadiens struggles as a team. Moving to a team that is firing on cylinders will help turn that around. Another positive sign is that his 5v5 A/60 is above the Puck Luck model projection currently, despite the Canadiens’ struggles.
Even Strength Defence
The Canadiens had just two players sitting below the league median for 5v5 xGA/60 at the time of the trade and Toffoli was one of them. Clearly, the Habs have been a mess this season, yet Toffoli has still managed to put up reasonably strong defensive impacts. Toffoli is also no stranger to Head Coach Darryl Sutter, winning a Stanley Cup with him in LA in his rookie season. It’s hard to imaging that Toffoli’s defensive numbers won’t improve as he moves to a much more defensively sound team environment.
Special Teams Impact
While we don’t yet know how Toffoli will fit into the Flames special teams plans, it is clear that he gives them more options. He saw regular time on the powerplay and penalty kill with Montreal this season, currently with 4 power-play goals and one shorthanded markre. He gives the Flames another option for the powerplay, likely on the second unit, and we could see him contribute in shorthanded situations as well.