Calgary Flames Playoff X-factors

The Calgary Flames quest for the Stanley Cup begins on Tuesday as they kick-off their first round series against the Dallas Stars.

The Flames will need some players to step up in order to achieve their ultimate goal, to bring the Stanley Cup to Calgary.  There are plenty of possible X-factors in the lineup.  Let’s take a look at a few of them with stats pulled from Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck.

The Top Line

The Flames’ top line of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, and Matthew Tkachuk was a handful for opposing teams during the regular season.  All three eclipsed the 40 goal plateau, while  Gaudreau and Tkachuk both surpassed 100 points. Gaudreau put up 90 even strength points (something not seen since Jaromir Jagr in 95/96).

Yet it wasn’t just their offensive contribution that made them the best line in hockey this season.  According to MoneyPuck’s line tool, their 62.2% GF% 5v5 was 7th best among lines with at least 200 minutes together at 62.2%.

Clearly, opposing teams will be game planning to shut the Flames’ top unit down.  If the Flames’ stars win that matchup battle, they will be hard to beat.

Jacob Markstrom

Goaltending can be a difference maker on it’s own in a seven-game series.  Jakob Markstrom has been solid in the crease this season, with MoneyPuck ranking him 16th in GSAx/60 (all situations).  That’s good enough for the Flames to find some success if they play well in front of him, but he’s also capable of taking it to another level and stealing a few games.  The Flames will be a tough out if he gets hot at the right time.

Dillon Dube

Secondary scoring is key in the playoffs and Dillon Dube looks like a candidate to provide some offensive support for the top line.  The line of Dube, Milan Lucic and Sam Bennett were a force in the 2020 bubble playoffs and Dube is heating up at the right time again.  With eight goals in the Flames final nine regular season games, Dube has the hot hand on the eve of the postseason.

Defense Corps

While the Flames may lack a superstar defenceman, their corps has gotten the job done by committee this season.  All six regulars set career highs offensively and all three pairs sit in the top 21 for xGF% at 5v5 according to MoneyPuck’s model.  With that kind of consistency on the back end, opposing teams will have a hard time finding a matchup to exploit.