Weaknesses
As the production above shows, Lawrence's biggest weaknesses are both his consistency and his lack of true physicality given his size, both of which were exposed when he made the step up to the college level.
Those can both be negated with a good showing in the upcoming season, but as a result, there's a good chance that he slips to the mid teens for his lack of production at Boston University and his slower first steps that could hold him back against elite competition in the NHL.
NHL Comparison
Given his good speed, two-way game and high intelligence level, the main two comparisons (at the high end) for Lawrence are Sebastian Aho and Dylan Larkin, and while that's best case scenario, even 70% of that would be a home run pick for Calgary, while others have compared his draft stock to that of Flyers prospect Jett Luchanko on the much lower end.
He's definitely not going to be as flashy as either of those high end comparables, but he's a very safe, versatile player, and while his ceiling is much lower than those two, he likely projects as a safe, middle-six forward that can play well at 5v5, on the penalty kill and the power play.
Fit with the Flames
The Calgary Flames biggest need is a centre, and while there's none in this draft that project to turn out as good as a Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon or Auston Matthews, building some strong, two-way talents down the middle through the draft is their hope.
Right now, the Flames are being patient with their rebuild, and given all of the draft assets over the next three years, they have the potential to be even more patient with development, and given that Lawrence doesn't turn 18 until August, they could draft him in the mid first-round (with a trade up) and allow him to develop in the NCAA until he's ready.
Will he be available to the Flames?
This is where things get tricky, as other players like Carson Carels, Viggo Bjorck and Keaton Verhoeff have much higher ceilings, meaning that if the Flames get to No. 6 overall and don't move back, it's highly unlikely that Lawrence will be there.
Now, the Flames have either pick No. 30 or 31 overall as a result of Vegas qualifying for the Stanley Cup Finals, and if they want Lawrence, they'll need to move up into the early teens, but with significant assets, it's a move that could be worth the risk.
Verdict
On paper, Lawrence is the perfect fit both for the Flames needs and their timeline, and while acquiring him won't come cheap, if they could somehow leave the first-round with a good defenseman and Lawrence a a future 2C to go along with centre prospects like Cole Reschny and Cullen Potter, this would be a fantastic move for the Flames (depending on the cost to move up).
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