Luck, Goalies & Coaching: Three Questions for the 2023/24 Calgary Flames

From missing the playoffs by just a few points (brought to you in part by questionable shootout personnel choices; no offence to Nick Ritchie – but, man, why?) to storylines of toxic environments throughout the season, the 2022-2023 Calgary Flames were a disappointment. It was clear at the end of the season that changes needed to be made.

During the off-season, Tyler Toffoli, the Flames’ leading scorer, was traded to New Jersey for Yegor Sharanogovich and a mid-round pick. Ryan Huska was promoted to Head Coach. Craig Conroy took over the role of GM and our lord and saviour Jarome Iginla joined the Flames’ front office.

Sounds like an eventful summer, right? Not quite. Camp Conroy has been radio silent for the past three months and large decisions that many expected to be dealt with over the summer still loom: contracts for Swedish centremen Elias Lindholm and Mikaeal Backlund expire at the end of the approaching season along with those of notable blueliners Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev, and Nikita Zadorov (all UFAs).

So, what will they do? Here are three questions facing the Flames in 2023/24.

Was the 2022/23 Calgary Flames’ underperformance mostly bad luck?

This might be the most dangerous question of all of them. To the eye test, the Flames looked terrible last year – unforced turnovers, a RECORD amount of posts and crossbars, no finishing ability, and absolutely no goaltending whatsoever. Looking at it through the lens of analytics, a lot of the eye test still holds up – the Calgary Flames had no finishing and no goaltending.

However, the rest of the analytics paint a more interesting story. Believe it or not, the Flames were actually a good team last year. They were third league-wide in xGF%, ahead of notable juggernauts like the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs. They were even better in CF%, finishing second league-wide. Even when it came to creating chances, their HDCF% was just outside the NHL’s top 10.

PDO – the closest metric to “luck” – reveals the fatal influence of luck on the Flames last season. In the PDO category, the Flames finished second from the bottom of the league, just ahead of Columbus with an awful PDO of 0.980. The Flames couldn’t finish their chances when they got them and they couldn’t save the chances coming the other way.

Even with tragic finishing and goaltending, the Flames still almost flopped their way into a wildcard spot. So, the question remains: who do the Flames and Craig Conroy believe they are? Do they believe that they can make a run in the playoffs with the current squad or do they sell at the deadline? My guess is that Conroy takes his time to decide what to do with the team and will not make any decisions too quickly, but I think this team is closer to a playoff team than they are to a bottom-tier team. With a (hopefully) resurgent Huberdeau to lead the offence, I believe the expectation for the team is to make the playoffs.

What happens with the Flames goalie merry-go-round?

We all know how goaltending fared last season. Jacob Markstrom, in his third year as a Flame, fumbled the bag. Countless games were lost due to weak goals or poor performances on his end. Dan Vladar, while shining occasionally, didn’t perform too much better. So, what’s next between the pipes?

To put it bluntly, Dustin Wolf is the future of this team. Arguably (one of) the best goalie prospects, Wolf has dominated at every level he has played at and showed promise in his first NHL start, nabbing a victory to start his career. Wolf has nothing left to prove at the AHL level, dominating in his two-year stint there. The Flames need to find a way to get him some ice time, and I fear Dan Vladar will be the one who’s deemed replaceable. Regardless, I think the question isn’t what to do with the goalies, but how they can be rotated for Wolf to finally transition full-time to the NHL level. It’s time.

Can Ryan Huska fix the Calgary Flames?

Many of the issues plaguing the Flames last year revolved around a certain coach – the one and only Darryl Sutter. During exit interviews, players voiced their displeasure with the coach and many took jabs through media interviews, hinting that Sutter was not a welcome presence in their locker room and that his coaching style drained many of the players.

Regardless of the fact that he was a dinosaur, Sutter’s systems worked. We saw this in his first full year with the Flames where they dominated night in and night out, getting the best from their stars at the time. Unfortunately, that success didn’t translate to the subsequent season; scoring dried up and Huberdeau performed well below his standards. Huska has been with the Flames organization for over nine years now and has learned from the best. Can he squeeze the best results out of this team? Only time will tell.

What now?

No one knows. The team is shrouded in questions and it’s up to players, coaching staff, and management to answer them.

The 2023/24 season will define the direction of the Flames for years to come, whether that means selling their assets and becoming a bonafide rebuilder or trying to go for it all.

All data from NaturalStatTrick.